The recent minutes from the Federal Reserve’s September meeting indicate that a 50 basis points (bps) rate cut in November is uncertain. This uncertainty is impacting Bitcoin’s price, as the market had expected a rate cut based on earlier signals.
Fed Minutes Increase Market Uncertainty
The September minutes have lowered hopes for a rate cut, which usually supports asset prices like Bitcoin. Before this announcement, many expected the Fed to reduce interest rates by 50 bps in November after Fed Chair Jerome Powell's comments.
However, the Fed is now cautious. They plan to closely monitor the economic outlook, looking at factors like inflation and labor market conditions. This cautious approach is leading to more uncertainty, making traders hesitant to invest in Bitcoin.
Monitoring Economic Indicators
The Fed will focus on several economic indicators, especially the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, which will be released soon. Recent U.S. jobs data has already created doubts about a rate cut, complicating the market’s view on Bitcoin.
Traders are uncertain about investing more in Bitcoin as they await clearer signals from the Fed and upcoming economic reports.
Upcoming Presidential Elections Add to Volatility
The upcoming U.S. presidential elections are also contributing to market uncertainty. Election periods often bring volatility, prompting many investors to be cautious.
Analysts suggest that Bitcoin might rise if Donald Trump’s chances improve. Current odds show Trump with a 53% chance of winning, compared to Kamala Harris at 46%. If Trump wins, analysts predict Bitcoin could reach as high as $90,000.
As of writing this article, Bitcoin was trading at $60,854.18, down 2.41% in the last 24 hours, according to Coinpedia Markets data.
To explore more about Bitcoin's potential price movements and long-term forecasts, check out our detailed Bitcoin Price Prediction article.
Historical Trends and Future Predictions
Despite current uncertainty, historical trends indicate that Bitcoin often hits new all-time highs after elections, regardless of who wins. The November FOMC meeting will take place the day after the elections, making it a key moment for investors.
Additionally, trader Peter Brandt forecasts that Bitcoin could rally to $135,000 by August or September 2025, suggesting strong potential for future growth.
The combination of the Fed’s uncertain stance on interest rates and the upcoming presidential elections creates a complex situation for Bitcoin investors.
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